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The spatial clustering investment behavior in housing markets 2015

Eddie C.M. Hui, Cong Liang
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Housing markets has long been studied by researchers. This paper aims to investigate the tax policy (Special Stamp Duty) impact on housing markets in spatial clustered pattern, which has scarcely been considered in previous studies. To fill in this gap, a group of second hand housing transaction records in Hong Kong is examined by spatial scan statistics and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Our methodology differs from previous studies that it is location-oriented. Our new findings point out that the recent execution of Special Stamp Duty would cause venturi effect in housing markets: the overall transaction volume would significantly move downwards and more high transaction regions would be formed. The location factor has a significant and positive relationship with the change of transaction status. Moreover, the venturi effect provides us valuable information to understand the housing investment behavior as well as the short-term feedback for government and policy makers.

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